Triangular contest for two Rajya Sabha seats in Jharkhand. The game hinges on 25 surplus votes and cross-voting fears.
In the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly, the magic number for victory is 28 votes. A total of 56 votes are required to secure victory for two seats.
The Mahagathbandhan has the numerical strength, but even after the victory of both its candidates, 25 surplus votes remain, which have the potential to change the entire game.
Out of these 25 surplus votes, 24 are with the NDA, which includes 21 BJP MLAs and 3 from allied parties. One vote belongs to an independent MLA.
This equation of 25 votes is what the hopes of the independent billionaire candidate, Parimal Nathwani, are pinned on. The NDA has extended its support to him.
Even after receiving the support of 24 NDA MLAs, Parimal Nathwani needs 4 more votes to win. These 4 votes can only be secured by making a dent in the Mahagathbandhan.
There is talk in political corridors that if some MLAs cross-vote or if a vote is invalidated, the result could completely turn around.
Even political analysts are refraining from giving a clear opinion on this election, as second preference votes could also prove decisive at the last moment.
To prevent potential cross-voting, the Congress and JMM have become fully vigilant. Congress has held a meeting with all its MLAs and ministers, giving strict instructions to remain united.
The party is making every possible effort to avoid any kind of 'damage control'. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan candidates, Baijnath Ram of JMM and Pranav Jha of Congress, are also confident of their victory.
This election will not only decide the fate of the candidates but will also be a stern test of the unity and political management of both major alliances in Jharkhand. The final outcome now completely depends on the loyalty of the MLAs and the precise management of votes.
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