El Niño may delay Rajasthan's monsoon by a month. The IMD has predicted below-normal rainfall this season.
Dark clouds of uncertainty are looming over the arrival of the Southwest Monsoon in Rajasthan this year. Due to the El Niño effect, the monsoon's entry into the state is expected to be delayed by about a month. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has further increased concerns by forecasting below-normal rainfall.
According to the weather department, favorable conditions for the monsoon are not forming due to an active El Niño.
This is why the monsoon is still stalled about 300 kilometers away from Mumbai.
Its progress is expected to remain slower than normal in the coming days.
The IMD had already announced below-normal rainfall for the monsoon season between July and September.
According to IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, "The total monsoon rainfall from June to September is estimated to be around 92 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is below normal."
Rainfall between 90-95% of the LPA is considered 'below normal', which is a cause for concern.
The double whammy of a delayed monsoon and less rainfall has intensified the worries of farmers in the state.
The sowing of Kharif crops will be directly affected by the monsoon's failure to arrive on time.
Experts believe this could lead to a reduction in crop yields.
A weak monsoon is also likely to cause a decline in the total area and production of Kharif crops.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that originates in the Pacific Ocean.
When it is active, it changes the air pressure over the Indian subcontinent, weakening the monsoon winds.
Its effect often leads to drought or low rainfall in the affected regions.
Looking at the data from the last decade, the monsoon usually entered Rajasthan by the end of June. But this time, El Niño has changed the entire equation, which could lead to a long wait.
This delay poses a major challenge not only to agriculture but to the entire economy of the state.
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